James
Jul 29, 2020
Please welcome @MakeItLinux co-founder
James Mawson, @JamesAMawson
This week (July 29 to August 05) here on @imakefoss
Interview: https://t.co/JxhCiTvRkD
@imakefoss is a rolling curator twitter account. Wanna be one of our curators? Please get in touch. https://t.co/x5xGYLqh1F
Jul 29, 2020
You know what’s kinda wild (and really drives me nuts)?
When I look at popular, consumer-targeted websites like https://t.co/vjWtLwFy9B, and put ‘linux" in the search bar, the most visible desktop operating system by far is Windows 10.
A thread.
Jul 29, 2020
You might think ‘so what? There are many websites that better cater to Linux users."
At the individual level, that’s fine.
As far as desktop Linux’s adoption problem goes, this is diabolical.
Jul 29, 2020
With an Alexa rank of 703, The Verge is among the most widely read tech news sites in the world.
Enough singling out of them though. Try searching ‘linux" on cnet, Gizmodo, or really any tech site with mass audience focus and a really low Alexa rank.
Jul 29, 2020
Where’s Linux Mint in this space? Elementary, Zorin, Manjaro? Valve Proton?
Where’s even Ubuntu?
Jul 29, 2020
If you got all your tech news from the world’s most popular tech websites - and plenty of people do - the only thing that might be visible to you about desktop Linux is that it’s becoming easier to use it on Windows.
Jul 29, 2020
The vexing thing is that desktop Linux is already doing the most difficult part of producing something worth attention.
It’s the last mile of reaching the press that fails.
So one minor point release of a web browser grabs more headlines here than our whole ecosystem combined.
Jul 29, 2020
Now think about the fact that almost no Windows or Mac users engage in a slow, deliberate, ongoing conscious reason about desktop operating systems.
They’re busy with everything else.
These opinions are formed by intuitions based on the most surface level cues.
Jul 29, 2020
When you speak to these fast systems of intuitive reason, the fact that this audience never even sees desktop Linux while scrolling through their phones is a huge cue that it’s not relevant to them.
Jul 29, 2020
Desktop Linux really needs a media strategy.
Jul 29, 2020
@killyourfm You’re a distinct - but very welcome - outlier.
There’s Linux Tech Tips as well.
Imagine where things could be with an organised effort to actually cultivate this kind of coverage.
Jul 29, 2020
@christianbute @killyourfm It’s not just one journalist - it’s the whole space.
Desktop Linux distributions tend not to earn a mention even when the tone is very anti-Microsoft.
Check this out:
Jul 29, 2020
@thevetdev @killyourfm That’s where it’s crucial to have someone on the case who knows how to pitch the right stories to them in the right way.
Jul 29, 2020
@thevetdev @killyourfm It’s also about how much WORK it is to do the story.
Minor revisions to Chrome & Firefox getting coverage here because it’s sp exciting, but because it’s an easy story to file.
If these writers were fed quotes, stats and visual content about desktop Linux, it could go somewhere
Jul 29, 2020
Thanks all for the lovely welcome. I was a bit nervous about taking this on because I’m a bit Twitter-phobic. But even the disagreements have seemed thoughtful and warm.
I’ll post more threads when I’ve had a chance to order more of my thoughts :)
Jul 29, 2020
@nunixtech @killyourfm @thevetdev This is a good question.
I think it’s hard to answer it well, because we don’t yet even have a really great measure of where a mass audience is even at WRT their perceptions and awareness of the software.
Jul 30, 2020
Is desktop Linux limited to the tech enthusiast space because the bewildering variety of choice is too confusing for anyone else to navigate?
Well, it sounds plausible..
..but what real measure of this phenomenon is there?
A thread.
Jul 30, 2020
Surely part of the appeal of this idea is that we can remember a time when we were new and totally overwhelmed by the sheer variety of distros, DEs and versions.
We keep seeing others too in that situation in forums, comments sections and social media.
Jul 30, 2020
But when I look beyond Linuxy spaces and converse with Mac and Windows users about this, it’s hard to find anyone who can name even ONE desktop focused distro, let alone several.
Jul 30, 2020
With that as a starting point, if more people started complaining that it was too hard to choose among the options, we might call that a win for awareness and visibility.
Jul 30, 2020
Some technologies can offer an endless, bewildering multiplicity of choice without it seeming to hinder adoption at all.
How many smartphone buyers go really deep into the incredible array of options before they choose?
Jul 30, 2020
I bought my Galaxy S7 years ago because a friend seemed to like his, I trust the brand & it seemed ‘good enough". I was too busy to dig deeper.
I’m even less savvy with the countless makes & models of car out there, and not very interested either tbh, yet I still somehow own one
Jul 30, 2020
What got me over the line with these things was that I just saw the benefit of having a phone and a car.
I never got really, really good at navigating the extraordinary choice and I probably never will. I’m not passionate about phones or cars, I just hope they work.
Jul 30, 2020
Malcolm Gladwell’s Spaghetti Sauce talk is a further counterpoint, which suggests that offering greater variety might even add to the appeal.
Jul 30, 2020
But please don’t feel too persuaded. This kind of reasoning by analogy that I’m doing here is very cheap.
I’m just making the whole thing up in my head, the same as everyone else does when we toy with this idea.
Jul 30, 2020
Instead of endlessly speculating, couldn’t we quantify the problem?
Why not survey non-users to see how many distros they can name and how far they got with trying to choose one?
Let’s see how actually big this is.
Jul 30, 2020
Obviously it costs money to do that.
But internet surveys can be inexpensive to run. And if the data was a bit rough because it was done on the cheap, it would still be something.
I don’t think the price is the real obstacle here.
Jul 30, 2020
The problem is that we don’t have an industry level organisation that’s interested in taking charge of this sorely needed marketing work for desktop Linux as a brand in its own right.
Jul 30, 2020
@bhupeshimself That’s really the best we can do without any proper research, isn’t it?
Swap anecdotes about what one guy told us once..
Jul 30, 2020
@Notocu That’s not really a position on the issue at question here
Jul 30, 2020
So why do so few people even consider desktop Linux?
It’s hard to see how it could be the software - these views are formed before even trying it.
Could it be just that they don’t see others using it?
Let me explain.
Jul 30, 2020
In 1984, an academic psychologist called Robert Cialdini coined the phrase ‘social proof" to describe the social instinct to copy the behaviour of those around you.
Jul 30, 2020
Social proof tends to influence people more when they feel uncertain, and from people they perceive to be similar to themselves.
Think about how certain most people feels about computers, and which desktop operating systems they see used by those of similar technical ability.
Jul 30, 2020
This also offers an interesting idea of why only the technically confident tend to use desktop Linux.
Intuitively, it seems obvious this indicates it’s just too difficult for anyone else.
It might just be their greater certainty means they’re far less influenced by social proof
Jul 30, 2020
It’s easy to despise social proof as mindless herd behaviour.
I actually rather admire it though.
Following the crowd is a terrible way to make perfect choices, but as a reliable way to avoid disaster with very efficient use of scarce mental resources, it’s not too bad at all.
Jul 30, 2020
It honestly seems like evolutionary genius to give an animal species, when it’s unsure what else to do, a default tendency to copy what visibly isn’t killing those most similar to themselves.
Jul 30, 2020
The challenge for solving our adoption problem is that desktop Linux is on totally the wrong side of this deeply embedded instinct.
It pays a huge price simply for looking unpopular.
Jul 30, 2020
This isn’t just about driving interest from end-users either.
Managers making decisions about hardware and software support, which products to stock etc are humans too, with the same social instincts as the rest of us.
Jul 30, 2020
One very direct way to start shifting this would be to better cultivate more visibility on popular tech websites.
Which ties back to what I said yesterday: Desktop Linux needs a media strategy.
Jul 31, 2020
@londoed I wasn’t thinking of it quite like that.
That’s still a good point as well though!
Jul 31, 2020
@londoed More fundamentally, we just don’t have anyone whose job it is to do any work for the desktop Linux brand as a whole.
For just a few k, we could make a useful start on measuring perception issues by running surveys.
None of our existing organisations see that as their job though
Jul 31, 2020
@londoed My basic idea for funding this kind of work is to get all the vendors with the most to gain by growing the desktop share together with Microsoft competitors who have the most to worry about the Windows monopoly, and persuade them it’s in their interest to sponsor it.
Jul 31, 2020
@londoed That way, it wouldn’t be totally reliant on community sentiment. It would have a commercial basis to sustain it.
I don’t think it could get universal support from the community because a big part of it intuitively values the technical brand and doesn’t want to see that diluted.
Jul 31, 2020
@henricones_ Thanks Henrique :)
Jul 31, 2020
Some feel that wanting to popularise desktop Linux is pointless.
It’s ‘not meant" for most people.
There’s no commercial basis to grow it. It can’t be done.
It isn’t even desirable - the noobs would stink it up.
Let’s deal with this.
Jul 31, 2020
The larger the commercial ecosytem serving desktop Linux, the more salaries there are for developers.
This isn’t an untested theory.
Look how Linux projects with a foot in the server space fare compared to exclusively desktop focused projects.
Jul 31, 2020
The Linux Foundation takes in tens of millions, Canonical hundreds of millions, Red Hat billions. With this, they employ thousands.
While Linux Mint, elementaryOS, Gnome, KDE et al have six figures budgets and rely on no small amount of volunteer labour.
Jul 31, 2020
Linux’s server and embedded system success subsidises the desktop to a great extent.
Jul 31, 2020
Would more money make it all more corporate and therefore ruin it?
I actually don’t see what the mechanism is for enthusiast-centred distributions could be pushed out from free and open source software.
A bigger ecosystem means they just have more to pick and choose from.
Jul 31, 2020
So clearly it would be great to go mainstream.
It’s also a lot to organise.. a lot of WORK. Is there a business case?
Well obviously hardware vendors who sell to this market benefit from growth, and service providers who support servers might support many more desktops too.
Jul 31, 2020
What I think doesn’t get mentioned nearly enough is that Microsoft has a lot of competitors with good reason to worry about Windows dominance.
I don’t think I’m going too far out on a limb in thinking the Microsoft Store might be there in the mix with Valve’s reasons for Proton.
Jul 31, 2020
How many tech giants compete every day with the sales and marketing channel built in to this desktop monopoly?
And with the ultimate market research tool of Windows 10 telemetry?
The cloud services market by itself is worth $200b+ (and growing) per year.
Jul 31, 2020
Then there are the big PC manufacturers, with thin margins and stagnant sales as they hand over billions for Windows licences.
If throwing a bone to Linux marketing got them only a bit more leverage to negotiate the OEM price, it could be the bargain of the century.
Jul 31, 2020
With all of that going on, I think it could be quite possible to establish some kind of marketing body for desktop Linux.
There’s every reason to want that too.
Aug 1, 2020
@henricones_ Yes, but they’ve leveraged that position to carve a slice out of so many other markets that there are now a lot of other companies who would benefit by some sort of push to make the desktop more competitive.
And the difficult bit of writing the software is largely done.
Aug 1, 2020
@t_var_s @killyourfm Totally agree.
When the surface level facts that are visible are that it’s free, and yet still hardly anyone wants it, the natural intuition is that it’s probably either terrible or just insanely difficult.
Aug 1, 2020
Instead of another rant about desktop Linux’s marketing challenges, for tonight’s threat some other smart folks will rant about it for me.
These easily digestible pieces each capture an aspect of the adoption problem really well.
Aug 1, 2020
Linux For Everyone’s @killyourfm just gets it with this stuff.
This piece crystallises how really great rational appeals fall flat if they don’t first engage immediate processes of intuition.
Aug 1, 2020
@killyourfm Anyone as engaged with the film Office Space as Hackaday’s Brian Cockfield was probably always going to put a smile on my dial.
His laser eye for web presence and branding is spot on as well.
Aug 1, 2020
@killyourfm If anyone was pointing out with absolute clarity before @BryanLunduke that perception issues are the single biggest thing in the way of Linux desktop dominance… well, I can’t find it on Google.
He’s not wrong either.
Aug 1, 2020
@killyourfm @BryanLunduke And here’s @jlwallen bringing the noise about how the perception of desktop Linux lags so far behind the reality.
‘If your perception is so much worse than your reality, what on earth are you doing trying to change the reality?"
Aug 2, 2020
To solve this adoption problem, let’s also draw on ideas from people who’ve aren’t at all Linuxy, but have great expertise in persuasion, intuition and decision making.
Today I’ll post a few short threads highlighting ideas from advertising, psychology and behavioural economics.
Aug 2, 2020
Veteran copywriter @davetrott has a good take here about how communication has different goals depending on whether you’re fighting for market share, or you already own the market.
Aug 2, 2020
@davetrott To sell more Windows licences, Microsoft just needs people to want a new computer.
That can’t work for Linux. It has to explain to the audience what they get for switching.
Aug 2, 2020
Let’s talk about the Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman’s idea of ‘system 1" and “system 2” thinking, and desktop Linux.
Linux is often quite good at speaking to the slow thinking of system 2.
But Man & Windows users won’t even pay this attention until we win with the system 1.
Aug 2, 2020
System 1 is fast, automatic effortless thinking, while system 2 is slow, deliberate, conscious and effortful.
Aug 2, 2020
System 1 forms intuitions very quickly based on surface level cues.
It’s not optimised to make ideal choices but to navigate a complex and uncertain world quickly and with little effort.
Aug 2, 2020
This all fits in with an earlier point about desktop Linux needing a media strategy.
That’s not about crafting an ideal, rational appeal to system 2.
It’s that media visibility is an excellent surface level cue to system 1, while system 2 is busy with other things.
Aug 2, 2020
@Hamster_Volant I got a few things to post about Linux gaming, stay tuned :)
Aug 2, 2020
Ad guru @rorysutherland has the most readable take on defensive decision making I’ve seen.
Choosing Windows over Linux isn’t always best for business, but it is the best way for individuals within that business to avoid blame when things go wrong.
Aug 2, 2020
@rorysutherland This also ties in with why it matters how often desktop Linux appears in the business and technology press
It’s not just about building awareness & interest, it’s about reassuring decision makers that it’s not too weird when someone else pitches it to them in a meeting
Aug 2, 2020
The psychologist Robert Cialdini is the author of ‘Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion"
To reach new users, Desktop Linux needs to better leverage the 6 principles of influence he identifies.
Aug 3, 2020
@christitustech This is where the Kahneman stuff I posted is really worth giving some thought to.
What you’re describing here is a good appeal to system 2, but it can only work if you first convince system 1 that an appeal to rationality is worth an effortful attention.
Aug 3, 2020
@psybertron @rorysutherland Yes, that’s it precisely
Aug 3, 2020
@JanSobania This gets thrown around a lot.
I have doubts about how big this really is; I think very few non-users are anywhere near engaged enough for it to come into play
It actually wouldn’t be that difficult to measure the problem, if someone was tasked to do it
Aug 3, 2020
@matthartley @josp0001 @christitustech @philshapiro It’s not really anyone’s department.
Activities that are inexpensive and just obvious - like the most basic market research, or PR - are competely skipped, because it’s nobody’s job to do it.
Aug 3, 2020
@christitustech imo Linux is actually pretty good at speaking to system 2 already.
On infrastructure and embedded systems, where the decision maker spends a lot of time in system 2, Linux is actually totally dominant.
Aug 3, 2020
@christitustech otoh Linux is really really bad at speaking to Kahneman’s system 1, which is where most people make nearly all of their decisions.
It seems quite poorly understood within our ecosystem that this matters or even that it exists as an issue.
Aug 3, 2020
I’m not a huge gamer. Before Covid, I wasn’t playing any.
Still, Linux gaming fascinates me.
You can’t deny that Linux is vastly better for gaming now than just a couple of years ago.
But this night and day difference in the software has done almost nothing to win new users.
Aug 3, 2020
If you’re not a gamer either - or you’re not doing it on Linux - have a look at this video by @mdiluz from @MakeItLinux to see just how far it’s come.
Aug 3, 2020
@mdiluz @MakeItLinux The availability of titles, the quality of the drivers, the ease with which it can all be installed - this night and day difference has taken the share of users on Steam from under 1% to… under 1%.
Aug 3, 2020
@mdiluz @MakeItLinux Part of the problem here is that you have to be a bit Linuxy already to have any idea of all this.
Across much of the popular technology and entertainment press, this is completely invisible.
Aug 3, 2020
@mdiluz @MakeItLinux There are clear exceptions to this rule.
@LinusTech is super excited about gaming on Linux.
This is notable because it’s seriously bucking the wider trend.
Aug 3, 2020
@thevetdev @mdiluz @MakeItLinux I am skeptical that the factual realities of the software are really such a big part of it, because the improvement to that factual reality has been immense and done almost nothing for market share.
Aug 3, 2020
@christitustech @matthartley @josp0001 @philshapiro I think a lot of these observations of the community are persuasive because they speak to our own experience as users.
It might be fairly marginal though, bc non-users overwhelmingly just aren’t engaged enough for it to come into play.
This is where we need some actual data.
Aug 3, 2020
@thevetdev @mdiluz @MakeItLinux I would find this very persuasive if the immense improvements to Linux gaming had still lifted the market share by a couple of %. It didn’t though. I’m not sure how the idea that the factual reality of the software is the main thing at play could be more comprehensively debunked.
Aug 3, 2020
@thevetdev @mdiluz @MakeItLinux This isn’t an untested theory.
We already did a lot of this and the numbers are utterly stark that it didn’t work.
Which shouldn’t be surprising really.
The factual reality of the software is something that only existing users experience.
Aug 3, 2020
@mdiluz @thevetdev @MakeItLinux It’s a night and day change in the software that’s taken the market share from under 1% to under 1%.
Aug 3, 2020
@mdiluz @thevetdev @MakeItLinux pointing out that it might hit 1.6% in 2027 sounds to me a lot like a furious agreement with my point
Aug 3, 2020
By now, some of you are probably wondering why an odd Australian keeps popping up in your feed to bang on about marketing the desktop Linux.
It’s partly because I’m a Linux enthusiast whose day job is marketing.
Mostly, though, it’s because I’m here on behalf of @makeitlinux.
Aug 3, 2020
@mdiluz @thevetdev @MakeItLinux These % figures you’re citing are highly artificial because the base is so low that negligible gains can seem really impressive in relative terms.
Aug 3, 2020
@mdiluz @thevetdev @MakeItLinux The point is that super impressive improvements in the software have driven negligible gains in market share.
Which makes sense, because non-users aren’t in touch in the software itself, but with a social and reputational context that has largely been left to chance.
Aug 3, 2020
@MakeItLinux Make it Linux is a volunteer, community effort to spread awareness and interest in desktop Linux.
We’ve noticed that just making the software better is, by itself, not enough to drive adoption.
That desktop Linux is a secret kept too well.
Aug 3, 2020
The whole thing kinda kicked off when @killyourfm complained in Forbes about the awful disparity between how rad Linux really is and how it presents itself to the wider world.
It turned out a few others had similar misgivings - and their own ideas for how to move it.
Aug 3, 2020
@killyourfm @josp0001 was working on a promo video for Ubuntu 19.10, featuring the music of @JerryMorrison
Aug 3, 2020
@killyourfm @josp0001 @JerryMorrison I had been putting my own thoughts about Linux marketing to paper, while @mdiluz had been compiling a Linux gaming video. @jlwallen was there in the mix and @0lzi has driven our web presence.
Aug 3, 2020
@killyourfm @josp0001 @JerryMorrison @mdiluz @jlwallen @0lzi Make it Linux is still very much new! A work in progress.. we’re still figuring out our best way to help grow the desktop.. we’re open to new ideas and new contributors.
If you’re keen to be involved or just curious, say hello!
Aug 3, 2020
How much of desktop Linux’s marketing situation is a result of Linux’s massive server and embedded economy swallowing the talented, career motivated, Linuxy communicators and entrepreneurs?
Aug 3, 2020
I mean, I’ve done various forms of web marketing for 13 years.. I’ve been full time on Linux for less than 2.
Already, Linuxy stuff in server/embedded is the majority of my client work.
Aug 3, 2020
All it took to bring that about was to write on my website that I use and like Linux.
From there, they hunted me down and threw offers of work at me.
It’s cool and interesting work too.
Aug 3, 2020
Whereas, trying to offer marketing help to the desktop space in exchange for $0.00, purely because you like it, is a real hustle and some of the audience is hostile.
Aug 3, 2020
What it will probably take to properly compete with Apple and Microsoft for desktop users is to align some very hard nosed commercial objectives to the goal of growing desktop Linux.
Those commercial motivations exist but are very dispersed across many entities.
Aug 3, 2020
@0xParadox as soon as you poke your head up they just totally snap you up
Aug 3, 2020
@christitustech @josp0001 @matthartley @philshapiro That’s a totally inward looking view though.
It’s as though the whole of what’s at play can be understood by looking within the Linux community.
But there’s actually a lot of great thought about intuition, cognitive bias, persuasion and market share that’s happened elsewhere.
Aug 3, 2020
@christitustech @josp0001 @matthartley @philshapiro that’s pure system 2 though. How does it engage system 1?
Aug 3, 2020
@christitustech @josp0001 @matthartley @philshapiro That’s not what I asked though
Aug 3, 2020
@christitustech @josp0001 @matthartley @philshapiro The whole thread you’ve entered is about ideas from behavioural economics that might be useful in furthering adoption.
What engagement with that topic does your counterpoint really have?
System 1 and 2 comes from Daniel Kahneman, a Nobel Laureate. I posted about that already.
Aug 3, 2020
@christitustech @josp0001 @matthartley @philshapiro that’s pure non sequitur I’m sorry.
I do like your channel but if you follow the actual thread here it seems you’re just going on arbitrary tangents.
Aug 4, 2020
@christitustech @josp0001 @matthartley @philshapiro It’s actually egregious though.
All you want to do is talk over the top of me without even an acknowledgement of what I was actually pointing to - a who’s who of world leading thinkers in persuasion and influence.
You dismissed this without any clue what’s even there.
Aug 4, 2020
@christitustech @josp0001 @matthartley @philshapiro and then you had the chutzpah to point out that Linux people ought to listen more.
Aug 4, 2020
@christitustech @josp0001 @matthartley @philshapiro The wider context is that this adoption conversation is totally absent of many key concepts that every other marketing context considers utterly basic
Yet somehow everyone who leads this conversation feels 100% sure that no idea from outside the Linux could be ever be worthwhile
Aug 4, 2020
RT @josp0001: Next week on @imakefoss
Henrique Andrade, @henricones_, econometrician and @gretl_stats team member.
Interview: https://t.c…
Aug 4, 2020
One last thread before I hand over to @henricones_
Linux people LOVE to talk about desktop adoption.
But this conversation rarely stretches to include a range of key concepts that other conversations around marketing consider utterly basic.
Aug 4, 2020
@henricones_ Usually it looks at the software and asks what should happen next.
A few people widen this to also look at the community and how it comunicates with itself.
This is a REALLY uphill way to win with the 96%+ of humanity who has zero interaction with either of these things.
Aug 4, 2020
@henricones_ The conversation has nothing to say about cognitive biases, of unconscious influences, of intuition vs. rationality, of the decision making heuristics of individuals and organisations.
Nobody even thinks much about brand, or about the top and bottom of the funnel.
Aug 4, 2020
@henricones_ The good news is that these things are not that mysterious anymore..
there are a lot of clever people out there who have happily explained them with depth and clarity.
I’ve posted links to a few of them this week :)
Aug 4, 2020
@henricones_ I’ve also done my best to apply a lot of these ideas specifically to Linux.
The Sunlight Manifesto is my deepest dive with it: https://t.co/1iZkRWit6f
Have a read if you want to see the desktop go big, or just find this stuff interesting.
Aug 4, 2020
@henricones_ We also know almost nothing about who we’re trying to persuade.
The published market research is ZERO!
We have janky market share stats from web traffic.
Apart from that, we reason from personal anecdote, or worse.. just exchange ideas that simply sound plausible to each other
Aug 4, 2020
@henricones_ This would all be fixable, if there’s the will to do it.
It costs money to do.. but only a small amount.
Before we can do that though, the adoption conversation needs to expand.
Aug 4, 2020
That’s it - I’m out!
Thanks for putting up with me this week.
If you read Linux Pro Magazine, I have an article about this stuff in the edition that starts hitting the shelves next week.
Stick around for @henricones_ - I am keen to hear what he has to say :)